Alligator SGF Force Trend Follower

Family: trend_following · Regime: trending · Complexity: high · Asset classes: Forex, Equities, Crypto · Timeframes: H1, H4, D1

Thesis

This strategy hypothesizes that sustainable market trends occur when structural price behavior (candlestick patterns) aligns with mathematical momentum and is further confirmed by a noise-reduced volatility baseline (SGF). The 'Average Force' indicator acts as a proxy for internal buying/selling pressure, providing an entry trigger that precedes the exhaustion often seen at Bollinger Band extremes. By waiting for the Alligator lines to diverge, we theoretically avoid the whipsaws characteristic of non-trending phases.

Components

• Bill Williams Alligator (regime) — Defines the 'active' market regime; only trading when the 'mouth' is open to avoid choppy consolidation.
• Momentum (Example) (direction) — Filters for trades with velocity; ensures we are moving in the direction of the macro trend.
• Average Force (entry) — Acts as the final trigger, signaling a shift in internal price pressure relative to the recent range.
• Bollinger Bands (Standard) (exit) — Targets price exhaustion levels (outer bands) or mean reversion (middle band) for profit taking.
• Average True Range (NNFX Version) (risk) — Standardizes risk by adjusting stop distance and position size to current volatility.
• Pattern Recognition Master (confirmation) — Provides a structural 'behavioral' confirmation that local price action supports the indicator signals.
• Savitzky-Golay Filter (SGF) (volatility_filter) — Provides a noise-reduced baseline; price must remain on the correct side of the SGF to validate the move.

Known failure conditions

• Alligator lines remain intertwined for >50 bars (dead market).
• ATR falls below 10% of its 200-day average (extreme low volatility).
• Successive failure of pattern recognition signals in high-momentum environments.

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