ALMA Fractal Cycle Breakout

Family: trend_following · Regime: trending · Complexity: medium · Asset classes: Forex, Equities, Indices · Timeframes: H1, H4

Thesis

The hypothesis is that trend continuation is most likely when Gaussian-smoothed price (ALMA) exits a volatility band (Floating Levels) while cyclical momentum (Solar Wind) is accelerating, provided a structural fractal break confirms the move. The edge exists because markets tend to cluster volatility after structural breakouts, making traditional fractal signals more reliable when filtered by high-order smoothing.

Components

• ALMA with Floating Levels (regime) — Serves as the primary regime filter to ensure the strategy only operates when price is trending above/below exhaustion levels, minimizing noise.
• Solar Wind NRP (MQL5) (direction) — Identified cyclical momentum shifts via Fisher Transform to align the trade with short-to-medium term cycle direction.
• Trend Break Fractal (entry) — Provides the execution trigger based on the breach of local market structure (fractal levels), ensuring momentum is confirmed by price action.
• Chandelier Exit (exit) — A volatility-adjusted trailing stop that protects capital during trend reversals.
• TMA Risk Panel (risk) — Calculates lot sizing based on the equity at risk and the ATR-defined stop distance.
• ATR Heiken Ashi (volatility_filter) — Used as a volatility threshold; if HA-ATR is below its moving average, the market is deemed too stagnant for breakout trading.

Known failure conditions

• Hypothesis is invalidated if the strategy produces zero trades over a 3-month period on liquid pairs (volatility filter too restrictive).
• Invalidated if the Solar Wind NRP shows more than 5 consecutive whipsaws in a single ALMA trend regime.

Explore the full interactive blueprint, parameter ranges and evidence on WOBR StrategyVerse, or generate this strategy as an MT4/MT5 Expert Advisor with QuantMogul AI Engine.