Aroon-GHOST Inside Breakout Strategy

Family: trend_following · Regime: trending · Complexity: high · Asset classes: FX, Indices, Commodities · Timeframes: H1, H4

Thesis

Market breakouts are most reliable when they originate from a period of volatility contraction (Inside Bar) that occurs in the early stages of a momentum shift (Aroon) confirmed by aggressive order flow (GHOST). By using a dynamic range (Boxline) as a secondary filter, we ensure the breakout has sufficient structural clearance to sustain a trend managed by Gann-based trailing stops.

Components

• Aroon (regime) — Establishes the macro trend regime; ensures we only enter when a new trend is forming (AroonUp > 70) rather than at exhaustion.
• GHOST — OrderFlow Intelligence (direction) — Validates the trend with volume-based sentiment and CVD proxies to ensure aggressive participants are supporting the move.
• Inside Bars (RSF Framework) (entry) — Acts as the volatility contraction trigger; identifies the specific point of market equilibrium before a potential expansion.
• HiLo Activator (Pandini Version) (exit) — Provides a trailing stop-loss mechanism that reacts to price closes relative to the recent high/low average.
• Spread Monitor (Tick-Level) (risk) — Filters entries during periods of low liquidity or high volatility where execution costs would invalidate the edge.
• Boxline (Dynamic Range Breakout) (volatility_filter) — Filters for expansion; requires price to reside at the extremes of the current dynamic box to avoid entering in the middle of a range.

Known failure conditions

• Price remains trapped in a Boxline range for >30 bars despite Aroon trend signals.
• GHOST Buy/Sell Sentiment fluctuates rapidly between 40-60%, indicating lack of conviction.
• Maximum spread exceeds 50% of the ATR(14), making the HiLo stop-loss targets statistically unreachable after costs.

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