Aroon-TII Intensity Trend Captor

Family: trend_following · Regime: trending · Complexity: medium · Asset classes: FX, Equities, Crypto · Timeframes: H1, H4, D1

Thesis

Strong trends are characterized by 'recency dominance' (new extremes formed recently) and 'deviation conviction' (price staying significantly above/below its long-term average). By combining Aroon (recency) and Trend Intensity Index (conviction), we filter for high-probability trend regimes. Entering on Stochastic momentum alignment within this regime captures the acceleration phase, while Williams Fractals provide an objective structural exit for risk, and the Gann HiLo Activator captures the trend's tail end. This edge exists due to the behavioral tendency of markets to trend longer than oscillators suggest.

Components

• Aroon (regime) — Identifies trend birth by measuring how recently new highs/lows were formed; filters out mature or exhausted trends.
• Trend Intensity Index (TII) (direction) — Quantifies the strength of price deviations from a long-term MA, ensuring momentum is backed by volume-weighted conviction.
• Stochastic Oscillator (entry) — Provides the final timing trigger by capturing minor momentum shifts in the direction of the established trend.
• HiLo Activator (Gann Style) (exit) — Serves as a trailing exit mechanism that reacts to price breaking the average of the last N highs/lows.
• Williams Fractals (risk) — Provides structural anchor points for stop-loss placement based on local swing extremes (lagged by 2 bars for confirmation).
• SSL Channel (confirmation) — Acts as a secondary trend filter and momentum gate, ensuring price is on the 'correct' side of the high/low SMA channel.

Known failure conditions

• Market enters a 'fat tail' distribution where price oscillates within the HiLo channel but never breaches the Fractal extremes.
• Stochastic oscillator remains 'pegged' at extremes while the TII and Aroon signals decay, indicating a blow-off top.
• Average trade duration falls below the 2-bar fractal confirmation window, leading to 'blind' risk management.

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