ASI-Fractal Forecast Stability Breakout

Family: breakout · Regime: trending · Complexity: high · Asset classes: Forex, Equities, Indices · Timeframes: M15, H1

Thesis

Breakouts are only sustainable when market structure (Fractals) is supported by cumulative price momentum (ASI) and occurring within a regime of high forecast stability (low MAPE). By waiting for alignment between structural breaks and low-volatility 'predictable' trends, we filter out noise-driven whipsaws.

Components

• Bollinger Bands (Standard) (regime) — Defines the trend regime; longs are only permitted when price is above the SMA (Upper half of volatility envelope).
• Accumulation Swing Index (ASI) (direction) — Determines the 'true' directional momentum by comparing price extremes across bars, filtering out false structural breaks.
• Trend Break Fractal (entry) — Provides the execution trigger when price breaks through the trendline connecting two consecutive structural fractals.
• Laguerre RSI (exit) — Uses an adaptive polynomial filter to provide a smooth exit signal that avoids the noise of standard oscillators.
• Williams Fractals (risk) — Defines hard stop-loss levels based on local 5-bar swing extremes to ensure risk is anchored to market structure.
• ProfitRobots Dashboard Template (confirmation) — Ensures that the directional bias is synchronized across the higher timeframe (H1/H4) before local execution.
• Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) (volatility_filter) — Filters out environments where price forecast error is high, ensuring the strategy only operates when price follows a stable, predictable path.

Known failure conditions

• ASI divergence: ASI makes a lower high while price makes a higher high, suggesting the 'true' trend is exhausted.
• MAPE Expansion: A spike in MAPE indicates price is deviating wildly from its model, suggesting a regime shift to high-chaos volatility.
• Fractal Clustering: Multiple fractals forming at the same level without a break, indicating a heavy range-bound regime.

Explore the full interactive blueprint, parameter ranges and evidence on WOBR StrategyVerse, or generate this strategy as an MT4/MT5 Expert Advisor with QuantMogul AI Engine.