Asian Drift Persistence Breakout

Family: breakout · Regime: trending · Complexity: high · Asset classes: Forex (Majors preferred) · Timeframes: M15, M30

Thesis

Market volatility typically compresses during the Asian session. When price breaks these boundaries, it signals a liquidity shift. By using the Asset Drift Model, we filter out 'fake' breakouts by ensuring the move exhibits statistical persistence (drift) rather than random noise. The Buddha Line and Stochastic then ensure we enter only when immediate momentum is aligned with the long-term statistical drift.

Components

Forex Asia Range Box Lite (regime) — Defines the intraday volatility bottleneck; breakouts from this box identify potential London/NY liquidity runs.
Buddha Price Line (direction) — Ensures the immediate tick/bar direction aligns with the trade bias to prevent catching falling knives.
Stochastic Oscillator (entry) — Used as a momentum trigger to enter on local strength (for breakouts) or minor pullbacks within the drift.
ATR Stop Loss Finder (exit) — Provides a dynamic trailing exit to capture extended moves while protecting against volatility spikes.
Daily High Low (risk) — Determines the hard invalidation point for the trade based on the previous day's extreme.
Candles Overlay Template (confirmation) — Acts as a final logical gate; only allows entries if the current candle structure meets programmed 'Top' stream conditions.
Asset Drift Model (ADM) (volatility_filter) — Provides statistical confirmation that the current price movement is a persistent drift rather than a mean-reverting variance spike.

Known failure conditions

ADM Variance Ratio (VR) drops below 1.0 (indicating mean-reverting regime).
Price returns and closes inside the Asia Range Box after a breakout signal.
Daily range expansion exceeds 200% of 10-day ADR before entry (overextended).

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