Bellwether Tech Entropy Trend-Follower
Family: trend_following · Regime: trending · Complexity: medium · Asset classes: Equities, Tech Sector ETFs, US Indices · Timeframes: H1, D1
Thesis
The strategy assumes that institutional money flow is most visible in 'bellwether' technology stocks (AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL). If these stocks are trending and the market is in a 'low-turbulence' state (few SMA crosses), a trend-following signal on the Triple EMA is more likely to result in a persistent move, provided it is supported by the Accumulation/Distribution volume index. Market inefficiencies are captured when the broader market lags these tech leaders or when momentum overextends into RSI extremes.
Components
- V6 All Features Fixture (regime) — Uses high-liquidity tech bellwethers (AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL) as a proxy for the broader 'risk-on' tech regime.
- Accumulation/Distribution (A/D) Index (direction) — Ensures that price moves are backed by volume accumulation, preventing entry on low-liquidity price spikes.
- Triple Exponential Moving Average (EMA) (entry) — Provides the core trend-following signal through a hierarchical 'stacked' EMA configuration.
- Relative Strength Index (RSI) (exit) — Signals mean-reversion exhaustion to take profits before a major trend correction.
- ATR Stop Loss Finder (risk) — Provides dynamic, volatility-adjusted stop levels to prevent premature exit during normal price fluctuations.
- Market Weather Price MA Cross (volatility_filter) — Filters out 'turbulent' or 'choppy' regimes where trend-following signals are frequently whipsawed.
Known failure conditions
- The tech sector (AAPL/MSFT/GOOGL) decouples from the broader market or the specific asset being traded.
- A regime of 'low-volatility grinding' occurs where price stays above EMAs but never reaches RSI exhaustion.
- A/D Index fails to trend due to massive institutional dark pool activity not reflected in public volume.
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