Braid-HiLo Range Expansion Framework

Family: trend_following · Regime: trending · Complexity: medium · Asset classes: Equities, Forex, Indices · Timeframes: M15, H1

Thesis

Intraday trends exhibit the highest momentum when a volatility breakout (Braid Filter) occurs in the direction of the daily regime (HiLo Activator) and is confirmed by a relative price strength oscillator (Average Force). By using the Opening Range as a baseline for profit targets, the strategy exploits the behavioral tendency of markets to expand beyond morning boundaries during trending sessions. The edge is derived from the requirement that price 'stretch' (Braid spread) must exceed volatility noise (ATR) before a trend is considered valid.

Components

• HiLo Activator (Gann Style) (regime) — Defines the primary trend regime; price must be on the 'correct' side of the trailing MA to permit trades.
• Average Force (direction) — Ensures the price is positioned strongly relative to its recent high-low range, filtering out weak momentum.
• MACD Classic (3-Line) (entry) — Provides the final execution trigger via histogram zero-line crossovers, representing momentum acceleration.
• Trepidity Opening Range with Extensions (exit) — Uses intraday market structure to set logical profit targets based on the morning's established volatility.
• Average True Range (Standard MQ4) (risk) — Provides a dynamic, volatility-based stop loss to account for varying market noise levels.
• Braid Filter (confirmation) — Acts as a volatility-adjusted trend strength filter to prevent entries during low-volatility 'squeeze' phases.

Known failure conditions

• The strategy fails if price remains mean-reverting within the Opening Range (OR) for the majority of the session.
• High-frequency MACD crossovers without Braid Filter expansion indicate a 'choppy' regime where the hypothesis is void.

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