Carter-Float Pullback Inversion

Family: hybrid · Regime: trending · Complexity: medium · Asset classes: Equities, Forex (High Liquidity), XAU/USD · Timeframes: H1, H4

Thesis

The strategy bets that the first significant momentum divergence (ADX inversion) after a TTM Squeeze release in a trending market is a false reversal (shakeout) rather than a trend change, provided volume turnover (Float) confirms sufficient market participation. Entry occurs on the pullback to capture the second leg of expansion.

Components

• TTM Squeeze (Carter Ratio version) (regime) — Defines the market state as either 'coiling' (Squeeze On) or 'expanding' (Squeeze Off). High-momentum expansion is required for entry.
• Simple Moving Average (SMA) (direction) — Filters trades to ensure entries align with the long-term institutional trend direction.
• ADX Crossing INGM (entry) — Used here as a 'pullback exhaustion' trigger. Given the indicator's internal logical inversion, a +DI crossing below -DI during an uptrend signals a temporary bearish surge that may be ripe for mean reversion.
• Restu Kaioh Scalping Indicator (exit) — Uses stochastic overextension to exit positions before momentum fully dissipates.
• Median Absolute Error (risk) — Provides a volatility-adjusted stop-loss based on the median forecast error of the current price action, resisting outlier-induced stops.
• Float Indicator (volatility_filter) — Acts as a volume-based hurdle; entries only occur once a significant portion of the 'float' has turned over, suggesting trend maturity.

Known failure conditions

• Prolonged low-volatility 'Squeeze On' states leading to time-decay in options or stagnant capital.
• Price oscillating around the SMA 200, creating whipsaws.
• Low volume environments where the Float turnover threshold is never met.

Explore the full interactive blueprint, parameter ranges and evidence on WOBR StrategyVerse, or generate this strategy as an MT4/MT5 Expert Advisor with QuantMogul AI Engine.