Carter-Ichi Compression Expansion System
Family: volatility · Regime: trending · Complexity: medium · Asset classes: Forex, Equities, Crypto · Timeframes: H1, H4
Thesis
Markets transition from periods of low volatility (compression) to high volatility (expansion). By identifying these compression phases (TTM Squeeze) and confirming the breakout direction with noise-filtered trend tools (Chandelier HA) and multi-timeframe structural scoring (Ichimoku), we can capture the onset of a new trend with high reward-to-risk, using ATR-based targets to avoid overextended moves.
Components
- TTM Squeeze (Carter Ratio version) (regime) — Acts as the volatility regime filter; identifies the 'coiling' phase (squeeze) and the initial impulse of expansion via the TTMS ratio and color-coded momentum.
- Chandelier Exit Heiken Ashi Variant (direction) — Provides a noise-filtered directional bias by using Heiken Ashi extremes, ensuring the trade is aligned with the immediate volatility-adjusted trend.
- MMT Ichi Workflow Overlay Profiles (entry) — Provides the tactical entry trigger based on Ichimoku structure (e.g., Kijun bounces or TK crosses) and multi-timeframe confirmation scores.
- HiLo Activator 02 (exit) — Used for the exit signal; its staircase trailing mechanism identifies when the local trend exhaustion occurs, protecting gains during reversals.
- TMA Risk Panel (risk) — Standardizes risk by calculating position size based on equity and setting an ATR-based stop loss to account for market noise.
- ATR Fib (volatility_filter) — Acts as a 'stretch' filter; prevents entering if the price has already moved beyond specific Fibonacci projections of the session ATR.
Known failure conditions
- Price remains in a persistent squeeze for >100 bars, leading to capital decay in 'theta-like' choppy environments.
- The manual ATR input in ATR Fib becomes decoupled from actual market volatility (e.g., ATR increases 3x but input remains static).
- Ichimoku HTF scoring produces conflicting signals across timeframes leading to 'analysis paralysis' or late entries.
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