Causal HP Micro-Cycle Scalper

Family: hybrid · Regime: high_vol · Complexity: medium · Asset classes: FX, Indices, Crypto · Timeframes: M15, M30, H1

Thesis

Short-term price cycles (DPO) are more likely to complete their expansion phase when confirmed by synthetic volume pressure (Footmap) and a micro-trend bias (t_ma), provided the asset's structural volatility (HP Filter) exceeds its noise floor. By anchoring risk to a fixed point-based grid, we bypass the noise of local liquidity sweeps.

Components

• Indicator Sample Diagnostic (regime) — Used as a pre-flight data integrity check to ensure the terminal has synchronized enough bars for the 34-period LWMA calculation before execution.
• t_ma (Smoothed LWMA) (direction) — Establishes the micro-trend direction. Despite the 11-bar processing limit, it provides the immediate momentum bias required for ultra-short-term scalping.
• Detrended Price Oscillator (DPO) (entry) — Identifies the start of a new price cycle by removing the SMA-based trend component, allowing for entries at cycle bottoms/tops.
• Commodity Channel Index (CCI) (exit) — Signals momentum exhaustion. Exiting when CCI returns from extreme levels (+100/-100) captures the meat of the cycle move.
• Point-Based Price Grid (risk) — Provides a non-dynamic, structural floor/ceiling for risk. Stop losses are anchored to the nearest 30-point horizontal interval to avoid noise-based stops.
• Footmap – Heat & Volume [v1] (confirmation) — Confirms the entry using synthetic delta. An entry is only valid if the candle's closing proximity to its high/low suggests actual buying/selling pressure.
• Hodrick-Prescott Filter (HP) (volatility_filter) — Filters out low-volatility 'market noise'. Trade is only permitted when the HP Cycle component shows sufficient amplitude.

Known failure conditions

• If the price remains between two 30-point grid levels for more than 50 bars, indicating a low-volatility 'dead zone'.
• If the t_ma indicator fails to update its 11-bar window due to terminal lag, leading to stale trend signals.
• If the synthetic delta of Footmap consistently contradicts DPO cycles, suggesting the linear volume approximation is failing.

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