CST-Alligator Multi-Modal Momentum

Family: trend_following · Regime: trending · Complexity: high · Asset classes: FX (Majors) · Timeframes: H1, H4

Thesis

The 'Basket-Momentum' edge assumes that when a currency displays strength against all peers (CST), it is driven by institutional capital flows that persist. By entering only on 'Stochastic Pullbacks' while 'Alligator' and 'UTBot' confirm trend alignment, and 'GOM BB' predicts further expansion, we capture the meat of the move while avoiding over-extended tops.

Components

• Currency Strength Template (regime) — Filters for pairs where the base currency is objectively stronger than the quote currency across the entire market basket, ensuring high-probability regime selection.
• UTBot Alerts (direction) — Provides the primary trend direction using an ATR-based chandelier exit; ensures we are on the right side of volatility-adjusted momentum.
• Stochastic Oscillator (entry) — Identifies local oversold/overbought conditions to trigger entries on pullbacks within the established trend.
• IAE — Technical Confluence Score (exit) — Aggregates 10 layers of data to provide a holistic exit signal when the multi-modal confluence breaks down, capturing exhaustion before price hits hard stops.
• Constant Range Channel (risk) — Defines the structural risk boundaries; stop-loss is placed at the rigid outer edges of the tick-based range to account for market structure rather than just volatility.
• Bill Williams Alligator (confirmation) — Acts as a secondary trend confirmation filter; ensures the 'mouth' is open, reducing the risk of entering during low-momentum consolidation.
• GOM BB Prediction (300 bars) (volatility_filter) — Filters out entries where the projected volatility (linear slope of Bollinger Bands) is contracting or stagnant, favoring expansionary regimes.

Known failure conditions

• The 'Alligator' lines intertwine for more than 50 bars, indicating a deep range where momentum signals fail.
• The Currency Strength Template shows all major currencies converging toward zero, indicating a lack of idiosyncratic drivers.
• Linear slope extrapolation of Bollinger Bands consistently lags behind rapid mean-reversion events.

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