Cubic-Fisher Darvas Force Breakout

Family: breakout · Regime: trending · Complexity: medium · Asset classes: FX, Equities, Crypto · Timeframes: H1, H4

Thesis

Price breakouts from consolidation are only high-probability when cumulative accumulation (WAD) and volume flow (KVO) confirm institutional participation, and non-linear momentum (TDFI/Solar Wind) confirms a shift in market cycle. The cubic force filter ensures that only breakouts with high 'acceleration' are traded, avoiding the common trap of low-momentum fakeouts.

Components

• Solar Wind NRP (MQL5) (regime) — Defines the broad cyclical regime via Fisher-transformed price location; must be in NRP mode to prevent look-ahead bias.
• Williams Accumulation/Distribution (WAD) (direction) — Confirms that price movement is backed by actual accumulation (buying) or distribution (selling) based on the true range slope.
• Darvas Boxes (Multi-Mode) (entry) — Identifies price consolidation ranges and provides the exact breakout signal for execution.
• Gator Oscillator (exit) — Visualizes the 'sated' phase of a trend; used to exit when the absolute difference between smoothed averages begins to contract.
• Simple Panel Template (risk) — Acts as the risk control module where the trader defines fixed-percentage risk per trade, which then calculates position size based on Darvas box height.
• Klinger Volume Oscillator (KVO) (confirmation) — Filters breakouts by ensuring volume flow (DM) is positive for longs and negative for shorts.
• Trend Direction and Force Index (TDFI) (volatility_filter) — Uses cubic momentum to filter out noise; entry only occurs when the 'force' exceeds the dead-zone threshold.

Known failure conditions

• Persistent sideways price action where Darvas boxes frequently break but TDFI fails to sustain values above the dead-zone.
• In low-liquidity environments where KVO and WAD provide divergent volume signals.
• Solar Wind NRP cycle length being shorter than the Darvas consolidation period, leading to regime-mismatch.

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