Cycle-Stabilized POC Breakout

Family: breakout · Regime: trending · Complexity: high · Asset classes: Forex, Indices, Equities · Timeframes: H1, H4

Thesis

Market breakouts are most reliable when they originate from a state of low statistical error (MAPE) relative to a predicted mean, suggesting a 'tightening' of price before expansion. By entering only when volume distribution (POC) and cycle-tuned momentum (SAM) align with a new trend regime (Aroon), we capture institutional repositioning while avoiding the 'fakeouts' common in high-volatility, high-error environments.

Components

• Aroon (regime) — Used as a regime filter to ensure the strategy only operates during the birth of a trend (AroonUp or Down > 70).
• TSI Convergence Divergence (TSI_CD) (direction) — Provides the primary momentum directionality; positive histogram for longs, negative for shorts.
• Volume Profile + Pivot Levels [ChartPrime] (entry) — Identifies institutional Point of Control (POC) and high-volume pivot zones for price breakout entries.
• Auto Pitchfork (exit) — Defines dynamic target levels (Median Line) and exhaustion points (Upper/Lower Bands) based on structural pivots.
• GOM KOLA SIDO — Full Integration (risk) — Provides structural Stop Loss placement using the KOLA Zone (ATR-based support/resistance) and Order Block levels.
• Smoothed Adaptive Momentum (confirmation) — Acts as a cycle-tuned confirmation to ensure the momentum is synchronized with the dominant market cycle.
• Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) (volatility_filter) — Filters out high-volatility noise; entries are only permitted when price deviation from the mean (prediction) is within a stable threshold.

Known failure conditions

• MAPE consistently stays above 2% for 50+ bars, indicating a chaotic regime where price-to-model deviation is too high for structural levels to hold.
• AroonUp and AroonDown both remain below 30 for extended periods (choppiness).
• Price oscillates around the POC without meaningful momentum in the SAM (cycle smearing).

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