Darvas Confluence Session Breakout

Family: breakout · Regime: trending · Complexity: high · Asset classes: Forex, Equities, Indices · Timeframes: 15m, 1h

Thesis

Institutional participants defend session extremes (SMTbot) and consolidation ranges (Darvas). A breakout confirmed by both broad technical confluence (IAE) and increasing relative volume (AV) suggests an imbalance of supply/demand that will persist until momentum exhausts or the price becomes statistically overextended (KRI). The failure of a basic sort (Regime) represents market indecision, which must be cleared before entering.

Components

• Unsupported array.sort_indices Order (regime) — Acts as a 'Disorder Filter'; the strategy only executes when price action is non-random (Close != Open), avoiding the 'invalid state' where sorting becomes ambiguous.
• ADX / Connectable [Azullian] (direction) — Determines the underlying trend bias and ensures momentum is accelerating (ADX rising) before entry.
• Darvas Boxes MetaTrader 5 (entry) — Provides the definitive entry trigger upon breakout of confirmed price consolidation ranges.
• Kairi Relative Index (exit) — Signals when a trend is overextended relative to its SMA, serving as a mean-reversion exit trigger to lock in gains.
• Session Levels (SMTbot) (risk) — Sets stop losses based on structural liquidity levels (Previous Day High/Low or Session Extremes).
• IAE — Technical Confluence Score (confirmation) — Requires a minimum composite technical health (Score > 60 for Long) to confirm that the breakout is supported by multi-modal factors (Volume/RS/Trend).
• Average Volume (AV) (volatility_filter) — Filters out 'fake-outs' by requiring current tick volume to exceed the 60-period EMA during the breakout.

Known failure conditions

• Market enters a 'low-volatility drift' where ADX stays below 20 but price slowly grinds through Darvas levels.
• IAE Score oscillates rapidly around the 50-midline, indicating conflicting technical signals across different timeframes.
• Session levels are violated and reclaimed instantly, indicating a 'liquidity grab' regime rather than a breakout regime.

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