Delta-Bias Momentum Exhaustion Filter

Family: trend_following · Regime: trending · Complexity: high · Asset classes: Forex (Majors), Indices (US30, GER40), Gold · Timeframes: M15, H1

Thesis

The hypothesis is that candle size expansion (measured by Size Highs and Lows 2) signals the start of a momentum phase that is likely to persist if supported by higher-timeframe trend bias. However, momentum is most profitable when it is not yet exhausted; by using the TMA CG envelope as a 'mean-reversion' filter, we only enter trades that have room to move before hitting statistical extremes. The edge comes from the confluence of volume-proxy (candle size) and structural trend confirmation.

Components

• Size Highs and Lows 2 (regime) — Defines the market regime by determining if the 'net energy' of recent price action is expanding in favor of bulls or bears based on candle body size.
• Bears Power (direction) — Ensures that during a bullish regime, the bears are not gaining strength (low price above EMA) and vice versa.
• Arrows Base Template (entry) — Synthesizes all conditions into a concrete execution point, preventing multiple entries during the same signal window.
• Auto Fibonacci (exit) — Uses structural high/low levels to automatically set Take Profit targets at the 61.8% retracement of the prior impulse.
• Average True Range (NNFX) (risk) — Standardizes risk by setting stop losses based on current volatility rather than fixed pips.
• TF Bias Detector (SMC) (confirmation) — Provides a secondary higher-timeframe confirmation to ensure local momentum aligns with the structural H1 trend and RSI sentiment.
• TMA CG 2024 (Centered Moving Average) (volatility_filter) — Acts as an exhaustion filter; even if momentum is high, trades are blocked if price is outside the TMA bands to avoid buying the top of a centered mean-reversion cycle.

Known failure conditions

• The 'maxDelta' value stays near zero for extended periods, indicating a total lack of directional candle size expansion.
• Price repeatedly tags the TMA bands without retracing, leading to 'missing' the heart of the trend due to the volatility filter.
• The SMC Multi-TF bias shows high frequency flipping between H1 and M15, indicating a non-trending environment.

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