Discounted Momentum Integrity Trader
Family: trend_following · Regime: trending · Complexity: medium · Asset classes: FX, Equities, Crypto · Timeframes: H1, H4, D1
Thesis
This strategy hypothesizes that trends are most tradeable when momentum restarts after a temporary exhaustion (MACD signal turn below zero for longs), and that trade viability is dictated more by real-time execution costs (Spread Monitor) and statistical model error (RMSE) than by price action alone. The Gator Oscillator's contraction phase provides a logical 'sated' exit point for such impulses.
Components
- V7 History Fraction Near Zero Probe (regime) — Serves as a 'Platform Integrity' regime filter. If the engine rounds the fractional offset to 0 (current bar), the regime is 'Normal'. If it accesses future/null data, the regime is 'Invalid', preventing execution on unstable environments.
- ADX / Connectable [Azullian] (direction) — Establishes trend directionality and strength; ensures we only enter momentum impulses when a trend is verified (>20) and accelerating.
- MACD signal turn (entry) — Identifies 'discounted' momentum shifts. Longs are triggered when MACD crosses above its signal while still below zero, catching the turn before the zero-line lag.
- Gator Oscillator (exit) — Used to identify 'Sated' trend phases. When the Gator bars contract (color change from green to red), it signals the impulse is exhausting, providing a volatility-based exit.
- Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) (risk) — Quantifies the 'model error' or standard deviation of price from its EMA; used for volatility-adjusted stop-loss placement and position sizing.
- Spread Monitor (Tick-Level) (volatility_filter) — A real-time execution filter to prevent entering trades during high-volatility spread spikes that would invalidate the RMSE-based risk/reward ratio.
Known failure conditions
- ADX remains below 20 for extended periods, leading to 'death by a thousand cuts' from MACD whipsaws.
- Average spread (from Spread Monitor) exceeds 25% of the RMSE value, making the R:R ratio mathematically unviable.
- The V7 Probe consistently returns non-current bar data, indicating a platform-level failure in historical referencing.
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