Ehlers-MESA Breadth Trend Follower

Family: hybrid · Regime: trending · Complexity: high · Asset classes: Equities, Forex, Crypto · Timeframes: M15, H1

Thesis

Market trends are most reliable when internal candle structure (ADR_B) and higher-timeframe momentum (TF Bias) align. By applying Ehlers' MESA Stochastic to filtered price data, we can isolate the cyclical pullback 'node' within this trend, entering as noise-filtered momentum returns to the dominant direction. The edge lies in filtering out spectral noise that causes standard oscillators to fail.

Components

• Advance/Decline Ratio (Bars) (regime) — Acts as a breadth filter for the individual asset; ensures the 'internal' structure of the lookback period supports the direction by having more candles of the trend's color than the counter-trend.
• MIDPOINT: Rolling Midpoint (direction) — Provides a non-smoothed center-of-gravity for price; if price is above the midpoint, the short-term balance of power is bullish.
• Ehlers MESA Stochastic (MSTOCH) (entry) — Identifies cyclical turning points after filtering out spectral noise and trend bias, allowing for high-precision entry into the established direction.
• Linear Regression (LINREG) (exit) — Used to detect the earliest sign of trend exhaustion (slope reversal) to capture profit before a full reversal occurs.
• ATR Heiken Ashi (risk) — Provides a smoothed volatility measure for stop-loss placement, reducing the impact of 'market noise' spikes that standard ATR might over-react to.
• TF Bias Detector (SMC) (confirmation) — Aligns the trade with higher-timeframe order flow (H1 bias and RSI) to increase the probability of trend continuation.
• ATR Projection (volatility_filter) — Acts as a volatility filter to prevent entering trades when the price has already extended beyond a statistically 'normal' daily range.

Known failure conditions

• Persistent divergence between ADR_B and price (e.g., price rising while ADR_B < 1.0).
• MSTOCH remaining pinned at extremes for >10 bars, indicating a momentum burst the Highpass filter cannot keep up with.
• Higher timeframe RSI (H1) oscillating around 50, indicating a loss of multi-timeframe directional conviction.

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