EVZ Consensus Map Trend-Follower
Family: trend_following · Regime: trending · Complexity: medium · Asset classes: Currencies (specifically EUR/USD or Euro-crosses) · Timeframes: H1
Thesis
Market trends in EUR/USD are most sustainable when they emerge from periods of low implied volatility (complacency). By using the Euro FX VIX (EVZ) as a filter, we identify 'quiet' periods likely to precede a volatility breakout. Aligning these breakouts with a Multi-Timeframe SMA consensus ensures we are trading in the direction of institutional flow, while QQE provides the specific momentum trigger to minimize 'dead time' in the trade.
Components
- Unsupported Map Template (regime) — Acts as a 'State Manager' to store and retrieve multi-factor regime data (MTF consensus and EVZ state) which prevents redundant calculations in each tick.
- Multi Timeframe Moving Average Dashboard (direction) — Provides the directional bias by requiring an aggregate consensus across all timeframes (M1 to W1), ensuring the trade aligns with the 'river' rather than a 'ripple'.
- Qualitative Quantitative Estimation (QQE) (entry) — Uses smoothed RSI and volatility bands to trigger entries on momentum shifts that have already overcome a 'noise' threshold.
- Chandelier Exit (exit) — A trailing volatility-based exit that protects unrealized gains by hanging a stop from the highest high (or lowest low) of the trade.
- TopTrend (BBands Stop) (risk) — Determines initial stop-loss placement and calculates position sizing based on Bollinger Band expansion/contraction.
- Euro FX VIX (EVZ) Data Loader (volatility_filter) — Acts as a macro-volatility filter; signals are only taken when 30-day implied volatility is low, betting on an expansion of realized volatility.
Known failure conditions
- EVZ remains at historic highs for extended periods, preventing any trade execution.
- Long-term SMA consensus (W1/D1) conflicts with short-term momentum for more than 3 consecutive QQE signals.
- The 'Map' state fails to update due to data gaps in the EVZ external file.
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