EVZ-Volume Turnover Momentum

Family: trend_following · Regime: trending · Complexity: medium · Asset classes: EUR/USD FX · Timeframes: H1

Thesis

Price trends persist until the 'float' (cumulative volume required to clear local inventory) has been exhausted. By identifying early-cycle turnover with the Float indicator and confirming momentum via triple-smoothed ROC (TRIX), we can enter on institutional value (VWAP) while scaling risk based on market-implied future volatility (EVZ). The edge exists because price momentum often outlasts initial volume spikes, but risk must be priced using forward-looking volatility expectations rather than historical price range.

Components

• Float Indicator (regime) — Identifies the volume exhaustion phase; signals that the current price swing has not yet consumed the 'float' required to reverse, defining a trending regime.
• TRIX (direction) — Filters out high-frequency noise through triple-smoothing to provide a stable directional bias.
• VWAP (entry) — Provides an institutional 'fair value' entry point; ensures entry occurs at a price supported by volume.
• SSL Channel (exit) — Acts as a dynamic volatility-adjusted trend-flip exit; once the short-term high/low SMA channel crosses, the trend is assumed broken.
• Euro FX VIX (EVZ) Data Loader (risk) — Uses forward-looking implied volatility to scale position risk and set stop-loss distances relative to market expectations.

Known failure conditions

• EVZ data becomes unavailable or desynchronized from price action.
• High-volume news events cause Float Indicator resets that trap entries in whipsaws.
• EUR/USD enters a low-volatility period where SSL Channel oscillates continuously.

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