Fisher-IAE Confluence Momentum Scout

Family: hybrid · Regime: trending · Complexity: high · Asset classes: Equities, Forex, Crypto-Currencies · Timeframes: H1, H4, D1

Thesis

Market trends are most tradable when cyclical momentum (Solar Wind), short-term price flow (t_ma), and multi-modal technical confluence (IAE) all align under high relative volume (RVOL). The edge exists because high-confluence moments represent periods where various market participants (trend followers, breakout traders, and volume-flow traders) are acting in unison, creating a temporary 'liquidity vacuum' in the direction of the move.

Components

• Solar Wind NRP (MQL5) (regime) — Used as a cycle-based regime filter to ensure trades are taken only when the Fisher-transformed momentum is in a confirmed cyclical expansion phase.
• t_ma (direction) — Provides the immediate trend bias by comparing a short-term LWMA to its smoothed counterpart; its 11-bar limitation necessitates a focus on high-frequency, recent-data execution.
• IAE — Technical Confluence Score (entry) — Acts as the final execution trigger by requiring multiple technical layers (volume, structure, strength) to reach a threshold of confluence (e.g., >70/100).
• UT Bot Alerts (MQL5) (exit) — Provides a dynamic trailing stop-loss and exit signal based on ATR-adjusted volatility.
• RVOL (Relative Volume) (risk) — Used to scale position size and validate the breakout; trades are only taken if volume is significantly higher than the rolling average.

Known failure conditions

• Strategy fails if the t_ma 11-bar lookback prevents accurate trend detection in lower volatility environments.
• Invalidated if RVOL consistently stays below 1.0 during price breakouts, suggesting a lack of institutional participation.
• Failure occurs if the Fisher Transform in Solar Wind generates 'sawtooth' signals in ranging markets despite NRP being ON.

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