Fisher-NW Structural Breakout System

Family: breakout · Regime: trending · Complexity: medium · Asset classes: FX, Equities, Crypto · Timeframes: H1, H4

Thesis

Market expansion often follows a breach of the previous day's extreme when aligned with a multi-timeframe trend. The hypothesis is that a combination of a structural breakout (Daily High/Low) and normalized momentum (Fisher) filters out retail traps and aligns with institutional flow, using volatility-based stops (NW Envelope) to survive mid-trend noise.

Components

• Sherif Hilo (regime) — Defines the macro-regime to ensure entries only occur in the direction of the dominant multi-day trend.
• Fisher Transform (EarnForex) (direction) — Normalizes price distribution to identify cycle peaks and momentum acceleration; used to ensure we are not entering at an exhausted state.
• Daily High Low (entry) — Acts as the tactical trigger; breakouts of the previous day's range represent a shift in market structure.
• Bears Power (exit) — Used to detect exhaustion in the trend; specifically, a significant spike in selling pressure (Bears Power) signals a Long exit.
• Nadaraya-Watson Envelope (EMA Proxy) (risk) — Provides a volatility-sensitive floor/ceiling for stop-loss placement based on non-linear price deviations.
• SSL Channel (confirmation) — Provides intermediate trend confirmation, ensuring price momentum has shifted in the desired direction on the local timeframe.
• TMA Risk Panel (volatility_filter) — Automates the position sizing logic to maintain consistent 1% risk per trade.

Known failure conditions

• Price consistently breaks the previous day's high/low but immediately reverses (failed breakouts).
• Sherif Hilo and SSL Channel frequently oscillate in opposite directions.
• Market volatility stays consistently within the NW Envelope, preventing profitable expansions.

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