Float-Cycle Volatility Breakout

Family: hybrid · Regime: trending · Complexity: medium · Asset classes: Equities, Forex, Crypto · Timeframes: M15, H1

Thesis

Breakouts have a higher probability of success when they occur at the beginning of a volume accumulation cycle (Float Reset) and align with the dominant cyclical frequency (Bandpass) of the asset, rather than at points of volume exhaustion.

Components

• Float Trader Indicator (regime) — Identifies the 'volume regime'. By ensuring we enter when cumulative volume has recently reset, we avoid late-stage trend exhaustion.
• Unsupported Imported UDT varip Test (direction) — Provides the core price directionality; although it only plots 'close', it serves as a trend persistence filter (Price > Price[N]).
• KandleKings™ WatchTower v1.0 (entry) — Acts as the trigger mechanism by requiring a confluence of VWAP breakout, volume surge, and RSI momentum.
• Commodity Channel Index (CCI) (exit) — Identifies momentum exhaustion for exits; when price diverges significantly from the mean, the trade is liquidated.
• Average True Range (ATR) (risk) — Standardizes risk and position sizing based on local volatility.
• Bandpass Filter (BPF) (confirmation) — Filters out noise by confirming the price is currently in a cyclical upswing (slope of the filter) rather than a random fluctuation.

Known failure conditions

• Consecutive periods where VWAP remains flat while ATR expands (whipsaw environment).
• Float Trader failing to reset for extended periods, suggesting the lookback window is too small for current volume profiles.
• CCI staying between -100 and 100 for >50 bars, indicating a low-volatility dead zone.

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