Float-Momentum Mean Error Divergence (FMMED)

Family: hybrid · Regime: trending · Complexity: high · Asset classes: Equities, Forex, Crypto · Timeframes: H1, D1

Thesis

Market trends are most sustainable when price momentum (Connect MACD) is backed by a statistical bias (Mean Error) and has not yet reached a historical 'volume turnover' limit (Float Indicator). By entering on volatility-adjusted price crosses (Bollinger Bands) and exiting via Heiken Ashi trailing stops, we exploit the behavioral tendency of trends to exhaust only after a full rotation of the circulating supply (float).

Components

• Connect MACD (Azullian) (regime) — Establishes the primary trend regime using weight-indexed signal processing to ensure momentum is positive or negative.
• Unsupported table.new modes Test Indicator (direction) — Provides the core price-action structure (y = close) to ensure current price is trending in alignment with the regime.
• Bollinger Bands (Standard) (entry) — Acts as a volatility-based trigger; entries occur when price breaks the median, signaling a return to momentum after a squeeze.
• Chandelier Exit (Heiken Ashi) (exit) — Provides a dynamic, volatility-adjusted trailing stop based on Heiken Ashi calculations to capture trend extensions.
• Volatility Ratio (VR) (risk) — Determines position size and stop-loss distance by comparing current True Range to the average; scales down during abnormal spikes.
• Mean Error (ME) (confirmation) — Confirms entries by ensuring the directional bias of the error (Actual - Predicted) supports the trend direction (avoiding mean-reversion traps).
• Float Indicator (volatility_filter) — Filters out entries where the cumulative volume turnover of the current swing is near exhaustion (>80% of TotalFloat).

Known failure conditions

• Strategy fails in low-liquidity environments where volume turnover (Float Indicator) does not correlate with price discovery.
• High failure rate if Mean Error remains near zero during high-volatility breakouts.
• Aggressive Chandelier Exit parameters (0.75 Mult) lead to excessive whipsaws in ranging markets.

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