Float Turnover Momentum Composite

Family: trend_following · Regime: trending · Complexity: medium · Asset classes: Forex, Equities, Commodities · Timeframes: H1, H4, D1

Thesis

Market trends are driven by the exhaustion of cumulative volume (float) required to move price between swing levels. By combining a macro-historical bias (Candle Count) with a noise-filtered momentum indicator (TRIX), we can identify high-probability windows where volume 'turnover' (Float Trader) aligns with accelerating momentum (TSI). The edge exists because price often pauses or reverses once a specific volume of shares/contracts has been traded, and using triple-smoothed indicators ensures we are entering the meat of the subsequent move rather than the noise.

Components

• Candle Count History (regime) — Establishes the macro-structural bias by identifying whether the historical majority of bars are bullish or bearish, ensuring the strategy aligns with the instrument's long-term behavior.
• TRIX (direction) — Filters noise to provide a triple-smoothed trend direction; its zero-line cross serves as the primary trend filter.
• Float Trader Indicator (entry) — Acts as the trigger by identifying volume-based exhaustion/turnover levels between swings; entry occurs when volume 'floats' reset at key levels.
• FractalScanner (exit) — Provides objective, swing-based exit points to capture local price exhaustion.
• TMA Risk Panel (risk) — Calculates dynamic position sizing and stop loss distance based on current ATR volatility.
• TSI Convergence Divergence (TSI_CD) (confirmation) — Confirms the entry signal by ensuring momentum (TSI minus its signal line) is accelerating in the trade direction.
• Average True Range (ATR) (volatility_filter) — Ensures there is sufficient volatility to move price toward a target; prevents entries in flat, low-liquidity environments.

Known failure conditions

• Consistent underperformance in markets where Bull/Bear candle counts are near 50/50 (highly balanced/range-bound).
• TRIX lagging excessively during high-velocity V-bottom reversals.
• Volume 'Float' resets occurring frequently without subsequent price expansion.

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