Fractal Pinbar Trend Resumption Strategy

Family: pullback · Regime: trending · Complexity: medium · Asset classes: FX, Equities, Crypto · Timeframes: H1, H4, D1

Thesis

Markets trend with 'breathing' cycles; these pullbacks often stall at previous 5-bar fractal extremes. By smoothing the trend regime with Heiken Ashi and using strict pinbar geometry to confirm a rejection of these fractal levels, we can enter the trend resumption with high reward-to-risk, using volatility-based stops to survive local noise.

Components

• Heiken Ashi (regime) — Establishes the smoothed trend regime to prevent trading against momentum.
• Unsupported matrix remove_col (direction) — Used as a raw price action filter (via its plot(close) function) to ensure the current bar confirms the regime direction.
• Support and Resistance (Fractal-based) (entry) — Identifies structural 'value' areas where price is likely to find support or resistance during a pullback.
• Sherif Hilo (exit) — Acts as a trailing stop-loss or trend-exhaustion exit by tracking long-term extremes.
• ATR Stop Loss Finder (risk) — Determines dynamic stop-loss placement and position sizing based on recent market volatility.
• Pinbar Detector (confirmation) — Provides the high-probability trigger signal at the fractal level, indicating rejection of the counter-trend move.

Known failure conditions

• Price action remains flat (choppy) causing Heiken Ashi to flip colors frequently without trend progression.
• Fractal levels are breached and immediately re-tested, leading to stop-outs before the Sherif Hilo can adjust.
• High volatility spikes cause the ATR multiplier to place stops beyond reasonable risk/reward ratios (>3% of account per trade).

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