Fractal-Volume Pattern Convergence Strategy
Family: hybrid · Regime: trending · Complexity: high · Asset classes: FX, Equities, Crypto · Timeframes: H1, H4, D1
Thesis
Trend sustainability is dependent on the convergence of price geometry, momentum, and internal candle volume distribution. By entering on candlestick patterns only when synthetic buy/sell delta (Footmap) and momentum (CCI) align with a weighted trend (LWMA), we filter for high-conviction moves. The use of Ehlers FRAMA allows for an exit that is mathematically sensitive to the market's fractal dimension, theoretically capturing larger trend extensions while exiting early during fractal efficiency breakdowns.
Components
- Multi-Type Moving Average Sticker (regime) — Establishes the macro-trend regime; LWMA is chosen for its higher weighting of recent price action to reduce lag.
- Footmap – Heat & Volume [v1] (direction) — Provides a volume-based directional filter; using synthetic delta to ensure price action is supported by aggressive buying/selling pressure.
- Pattern Recognition Master (entry) — Acts as the trigger; candlestick patterns signify localized exhaustion or momentum breakouts within the established trend.
- Ehlers Fractal Adaptive Moving Average (FRAMA) (exit) — Dynamic trailing exit; fractal dimension adjustment allows the exit to tighten during strong trends and loosen during noise.
- Average True Range (ATR) (risk) — Used for volatility-adjusted stop-loss placement and position sizing to maintain constant dollar risk.
- Commodity Channel Index (CCI) (confirmation) — Confirms momentum alignment; ensures the trade is entered during a period of expanding price deviation in the trade's direction.
Known failure conditions
- Price remains stagnant despite high synthetic delta (divergence between volume proxy and price).
- CCI fails to cross zero for extended periods during MTMA-defined trends.
- Fractal dimension (D) remains near 1.0, causing FRAMA to act like a simple SMA and failing to adapt to volatility.
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