Fractional Stability Momentum Alignment System

Family: trend_following · Regime: trending · Complexity: high · Asset classes: FX, Equities, Crypto · Timeframes: H1, H4, D1

Thesis

The strategy assumes that institutional trends (200-day SMA slope) are most exploitable when confirmed by multi-speed momentum (ASH/TSI) and supported by local structural reversals (Roshaneforde). The addition of a technical 'probe' (V7) serves as a proxy for market data stability, hypothesizing that trend-following signals are more reliable when price history exhibits linear continuity at the fractional level.

Components

• V7 history-fraction-near-zero-v6-v1 (regime) — Used as a 'Structural Integrity' filter. If the fractional index probe (close_-0.9) deviates significantly from close_0, the regime is considered too volatile or 'unstable' for execution, effectively filtering out periods of erratic tick data or runtime anomalies.
• Absolute Strength Histogram (ASH) (direction) — Provides the primary directional bias by comparing the relative strength of bullish vs bearish price movement via RSI smoothing.
• MACD EMA Crossover Visualizer (entry) — The tactical trigger; entries occur on the EMA crossover to capitalize on localized momentum shifts.
• Bollinger Bands (exit) — Used for tactical exits at the outer volatility boundaries, signaling mean reversion or trend exhaustion.
• Roshaneforde Pivot Levels (risk) — Defines hard stop-loss levels based on candle engulfing patterns (structural 'Buy/Sell' levels) and dictates position sizing.
• TSI Convergence Divergence (TSI_CD) (confirmation) — Confirms the MACD entry; ensures that double-smoothed momentum (TSI) is accelerating in the direction of the trade.
• 200-Day Trend Background (Smoothed Volume Gradient) (volatility_filter) — Ensures the strategy only trades in the direction of the long-term trend (HTF SMA slope) while filtering for adequate liquidity via the volume gradient.

Known failure conditions

• If price remains pinned to the Bollinger Band while TSI_CD flips color repeatedly, indicating a 'walking the bands' scenario that the exit logic cannot handle.
• If the Roshaneforde Pivot Level is further than 5% from the entry price, indicating a lack of local structural support.

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