FXTSI Persistence Scalper with EVZ Risk Normalization

Family: hybrid · Regime: trending · Complexity: high · Asset classes: Forex (EUR/USD focus) · Timeframes: H1 (Regime), M5 (Entry)

Thesis

EUR/USD price action exhibits high persistence when currency strength (FXTSI) diverges and implied volatility (EVZ) is elevated. In these regimes, positive autocorrelation (ACF) confirms that local stochastic extremes (Restu Kaioh) within an established channel (Sherif Hilo) represent high-probability trend continuation entries toward institutional supply/demand levels (Q-Levels).

Components

• Forex True Strength Index (FXTSI) (regime) — Identifies the relative strength of EUR vs USD to ensure we are trading the strongest currency against the weakest within the 8-major universe.
• Sherif Hilo (direction) — Provides the structural trend bias based on historical extremes; ensures entries are aligned with the dominant price channel.
• Restu Kaioh Scalping Indicator (entry) — Used for precise entry timing by identifying temporary momentum exhaustion (pullbacks) within the broader trend.
• Q-Levels V2.2 (exit) — Determines logical take-profit targets based on external structural data (Gamma walls, SR levels) rather than arbitrary math.
• Euro FX VIX (EVZ) Data Loader (risk) — Dynamic risk adjustment; uses implied volatility of EUR/USD to scale position size and set volatility-adjusted stops.
• Autocorrelation Function (ACF) (volatility_filter) — Acts as a filter to ensure price action is in a 'trending' state (positive autocorrelation) rather than a 'mean-reverting' state (negative autocorrelation).

Known failure conditions

• EUR and USD TSI values converge within a 5-unit range, indicating no relative strength edge.
• EVZ values drop below 5.0 (extremely low implied vol), rendering trend-following targets unreachable.
• External Q-Levels file is not updated for more than 24 hours, leading to stale structural targets.

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