GARCH-Gated Momentum Grid
Family: hybrid · Regime: trending · Complexity: high · Asset classes: Forex, Indices · Timeframes: H1, H4
Thesis
Profitable trends exist within 'volatility sweet spots'—periods where risk is high enough to move price but low enough to maintain structural integrity. By using GARCH(1,1) to identify these clusters, we can use multi-timeframe dashboard filters to find direction and Ehlers' zero-lag CG to solve the inherent lag in MACD momentum entries. The Point Based Grid ensures that risk is anchored to fixed price intervals rather than dynamic (and potentially lagging) ATR values.
Components
- Conditional Volatility (CV) (regime) — Filters for a 'Goldilocks' volatility regime; ensures the strategy avoids both stagnant markets (no movement) and parabolic/crash regimes where technical indicators break down.
- ProfitRobots Dashboard Template (direction) — Provides a multi-timeframe directional bias by aggregating price action relative to a 200-period EMA across the H4 timeframe.
- Connect MACD (Azullian) (entry) — Acts as the primary momentum trigger when the MACD line crosses the signal line within the context of the larger trend.
- Bears Power (exit) — Used as a dynamic exhaustion exit; for longs, a sudden drop in Bears Power suggests bears are regaining control of the 'lows' relative to the EMA.
- Point Based Grid (risk) — Standardizes risk by placing stops at fixed structural intervals (points) rather than arbitrary percentages, aligning with market micro-structure.
- Ehlers Center of Gravity (CG) (confirmation) — Validates that the MACD momentum shift is occurring at a cyclic turning point, reducing the probability of entering at the end of a micro-swing.
Known failure conditions
- Conditional Volatility stays above 40% for extended periods (regime shift to high-risk instability).
- Dashboard shows conflicting signals across all pairs, indicating a lack of broad market dollar-direction.
- Price action consistently ignores the Point Based Grid intervals, suggesting the point-increment is poorly calibrated to the asset's current ATR.
Explore the full interactive blueprint, parameter ranges and evidence on WOBR StrategyVerse, or generate this strategy as an MT4/MT5 Expert Advisor with QuantMogul AI Engine.