Gator-Kijun Statistical Breakout

Family: hybrid · Regime: trending · Complexity: high · Asset classes: FX (Major Pairs), Equities (Blue Chips), Crypto (Major Pairs) · Timeframes: H1, H4

Thesis

Daily breakouts are more likely to result in sustained trends when the asset exhibits statistical relative strength (via Kalman-filtered AI Pair) and the price action velocity is confirmed as 'non-noisy' by DeMark's REI. The Alligator's Gator Oscillator ensures the entry occurs during a cycle of expansion ('eating') rather than contraction ('sleeping').

Components

Gator Oscillator (Standard) (regime) — Determines the trend phase (sleeping vs. eating) to avoid entering during low-volatility congestion.
Kijun Sen Envelope (direction) — Establishes the primary trend direction relative to a long-term midpoint with a fixed volatility buffer.
Daily High Low MTF (entry) — Triggers the entry based on breaches of psychological and structural daily price extremes.
TSI Convergence Divergence (TSI_CD) (exit) — Provides an early warning of momentum exhaustion through histogram color flips to exit before trend reversal.
Elliott Wave [LuxAlgo] (risk) — Uses detected wave pivots (specifically Wave 4 or Wave 2) to set structural stop losses.
Range Expansion Index (REI) (confirmation) — Filters out noise by ensuring price velocity meets DeMark's expansion criteria before confirmation.
AI Pair Trading System v1.0 (volatility_filter) — Filters for high-probability setups where the asset is showing statistical strength relative to a benchmark (e.g., BTC or SPY).

Known failure conditions

Persistent flat Gator Oscillator (Sleeping) for >20 bars despite price movement.
Z-Score remains above 2.0 while the main asset crashes, indicating a breakdown in the statistical relationship.
Price stays pinned to the Kijun Midpoint while RSI/REI shows extreme whip-saw signals.

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