Gaussian Gann-Cloud Momentum Hybrid

Family: trend_following · Regime: trending · Complexity: high · Asset classes: Forex (Major Pairs), Indices (DAX, S&P500), Crypto (BTC, ETH) · Timeframes: H1, H4

Thesis

Market trends are most tradable when structural breakouts (Ichimoku) are confirmed by momentum-based trailing stops (UT Bot) and smoothed volatility expansion (ALMA). By using the Volatility Ratio to size risk, the strategy assumes that 'true' breakouts are accompanied by abnormal relative volatility. The MACDO exit hypothesis assumes that a decrease in the rate of change of momentum (the second derivative of price) is a reliable lead indicator for trend exhaustion.

Components

HiLo Activator (Pandini Version) (regime) — Acts as the primary trend bias filter, ensuring trades only occur in the direction of the medium-term Gann-based trend.
Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (direction) — Provides market structure confirmation; price must be above/below the cloud to ensure clear directional space.
UT Bot Alerts (MQL5) (entry) — Provides the execution trigger by identifying immediate momentum shifts via ATR-based trailing stop crossovers.
Moving Average Convergence/Divergence Oscillation (MACDO) (exit) — Detects the 'momentum of momentum' to identify exhaustion points before price actually reverses.
Volatility Ratio (VR) (risk) — Dynamically adjusts stop-loss distance based on whether current volatility is expanding or contracting relative to the average.
ALMA with Floating Levels (volatility_filter) — Filters out low-volatility 'noise' by requiring price to be trending within smoothed Gaussian bands.

Known failure conditions

Price consistently touches the Ichimoku Kijun-sen without triggering UT Bot alerts (indicating a slow creep rather than a trend).
MACDO generates multiple exit signals within a single HiLo trend phase, leading to over-trading or premature exits.
Volatility Ratio (VR) remains below 1.0 for extended periods during price movement, suggesting the move is too weak to sustain.

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