Geometric Fractal Velocity Breakout

Family: breakout · Regime: trending · Complexity: medium · Asset classes: FX · Timeframes: M30, H1

Thesis

Currency trends are most persistent when a currency exhibits strength against a broad basket (Geometric Index) and breaks local market structure (Fractal) with high velocity (REI). By avoiding trade execution during high-impact news, the strategy seeks to capture 'clean' moves where institutional flow outweighs speculative news-driven noise.

Components

• Darwinex Labs Currency Index (regime) — Used to determine if the base currency is in a state of relative appreciation/depreciation against a broad basket, ensuring we only trade 'strong' or 'weak' currencies rather than just pairs.
• Mn Fractal Store (direction) — Identifies structural horizontal breakout levels. The asymmetric nature (mSizeL > mSizeR) allows for quicker detection of a pivot while maintaining long-term structural significance.
• Range Expansion Index (REI) (entry) — Acts as a momentum trigger that filters out 'noisy' or non-directional price movement by requiring price velocity to exceed specific thresholds before signaling entry.
• SuperTrend (exit) — Provides a dynamic, volatility-adjusted trailing stop and trend-flip exit mechanism.
• News Indicator NMNNFX (risk) — Used to scale risk and determine entry validity based on scheduled macroeconomic volatility spikes.

Known failure conditions

• Darwinex Index remains flat for >20 periods while price oscillates (total regime neutrality).
• Mn Fractal Store levels are breached and immediately reclaimed >3 times in a row (false breakout regime).
• Consistently high news impact frequency (e.g. NFP week) preventing signal execution.

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