Geometric Index Volume Gap Hybrid
Family: hybrid · Regime: trending · Complexity: high · Asset classes: Forex · Timeframes: H1, H4
Thesis
The strategy hypothesizes that currency-specific momentum (Darwinex Index) and local price-range positioning (Average Force) identify high-probability trend continuations, while volume profile 'Key Zones' pinpoint structural liquidity gaps for low-risk entries. The edge relies on the assumption that low-volume bins within a trending regime act as magnets/springs due to institutional order imbalance, while GARCH-based volatility filtering prevents entering during unstable regime shifts.
Components
- Darwinex Labs Currency Index (regime) — Filters for currency-specific strength/weakness independently of the specific pair being traded, establishing a macro regime.
- Average Force (direction) — Provides a smoothed directional bias based on price location within a rolling range, ensuring local momentum aligns with the macro regime.
- Dynamic Supply and Demand Zones [AlgoAlpha] (entry) — Identifies liquidity exhaustion points (low volume bins) where price is likely to find support/resistance near recent pivots.
- Stochastic Oscillator (exit) — Signals momentum exhaustion for exit timing when the move reaches standard overbought/oversold extremes.
- Price Line and Visible Range High-Low (risk) — Provides dynamic, chart-based boundaries for stop loss placement and volatility-adjusted position sizing.
- Conditional Volatility (CV) (volatility_filter) — Filters out periods of regime-breaking volatility or extreme stagnation where GARCH(1,1) estimates exceed historical norms.
Known failure conditions
- Currency Index remains flat while the specific pair trends (decoupling of the index constituent).
- Visible Range High/Low narrows excessively during low volatility, leading to 'stop-outs' on minor noise.
- GARCH volatility remains at extreme levels for extended periods, preventing any trades during high-volatility trends.
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