Ghost-Box Volatility Expansion System

Family: breakout · Regime: trending · Complexity: medium · Asset classes: Forex, Equities, Crypto · Timeframes: H1, H4, D1

Thesis

Price breakouts from consolidation phases (Boxlines) exhibit higher predictive persistence when accompanied by an immediate expansion in relative range (VR) and alignment with a statistically significant linear regression trend (Ghost Channels). The edge exists because the VR filter identifies an 'urgency' in price action that differentiates true momentum from low-volume stop-hunts.

Components

• UDT Array Push Identity Test (regime) — Acts as a 'system readiness' check; although non-functional for alpha, it ensures data integrity and point-type identity before trade execution.
• MACD Demo Implementation (direction) — Provides the momentum bias; ensuring the breakout occurs in the direction of the underlying EMA relationship.
• Volatility Ratio (VR) (entry) — Filters for 'explosive' entries where the breakout bar range is significantly larger than the historical ATR, reducing the risk of low-energy fakeouts.
• FractalScanner (exit) — Uses local extrema as trailing stop-loss anchors or trend exhaustion points to secure profits.
• Average True Range (NNFX) (risk) — Standardized volatility measurement for defining position sizing and initial stop-loss buffers.
• Ghost Channels [mph1nance] (confirmation) — Provides structural context via linear regression; trades are only taken if price is within a validated channel and Urgency Score is rising.
• Boxline (Range Breakout) (volatility_filter) — Identifies consolidation phases; the breakout of the 'Box' serves as the primary technical trigger.

Known failure conditions

• Ghost Channel R2 drops below 0.3 (indicating no linear trend is present).
• Price remains pinned within the Boxline range for >50 bars, indicating a dead market.
• MACD signal line and MACD line remain flat (divergence < 0.001) for extended periods.

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