GHOST Pinbar VWAP Reversion

Family: hybrid · Regime: trending · Complexity: medium · Asset classes: FX, Equity Indices, Liquid Commodities · Timeframes: M5, M15, M30

Thesis

Short-term counter-trend price spikes (Pinbars) are often traps set by low liquidity; when these spikes occur against a strong momentum regime confirmed by volume sentiment (GHOST), price will revert to its intraday volume-weighted equilibrium (VWAP), offering a high-probability entry for the resumption of the primary trend.

Components

• MACD EMA Crossover Visualizer (regime) — Establishes the macro-regime to ensure trades are only taken in the direction of the medium-term trend.
• MACD Demo Implementation (direction) — Filters for active momentum alignment, ensuring the local trend hasn't already exhausted.
• Pinbar Detector (entry) — Identifies price-action exhaustion candles (rejections) that serve as the trigger for entry.
• Daily Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP) (exit) — Serves as the 'fair value' target; since price often gravitates back to VWAP within a session.
• SuperTrend (risk) — Provides a volatility-adjusted stop-loss level and determines position sizing based on risk-to-stop distance.
• GHOST — OrderFlow Intelligence (confirmation) — Provides volume-based confirmation that the price-action rejection is supported by buyer/seller sentiment.

Known failure conditions

• The daily VWAP target is frequently reached before a Pinbar entry triggers, indicating the move has already 'reverted'.
• GHOST Sentiment remains neutral (45-55%) during trend phases, failing to provide confirmation.
• SuperTrend stop-loss is consistently hit before price reaches VWAP due to low volatility regimes.

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