GHOST-Structure Reversal Alpha

Family: hybrid · Regime: trending · Complexity: medium · Asset classes: Forex, Indices, Crypto · Timeframes: 15M, 1H, 4H

Thesis

Market reversals are most reliable when a structural Head & Shoulders pattern (exhaustion) is confirmed by an influx of aggressive market participation (CVD proxy) and a breakout in momentum (ROC). By entering only when structure, order flow, and momentum align, the strategy avoids false breaks while using volatility-adjusted exits to ride emerging trends.

Components

• GHOST — OrderFlow Intelligence (regime) — Acts as a filter to ensure that structural reversals are backed by cumulative aggressive volume (CVD) and directional sentiment rather than low-liquidity spikes.
• HS Indicator (Head & Shoulders) (direction) — Identifies the primary structural reversal setup. The 'Inverse H&S' identifies bottoming, while the 'Standard H&S' identifies topping.
• Rate of Change (ROC) (entry) — Triggers the entry when momentum confirms the direction of the structural break, reducing the risk of entering during a 'neckline' retest that lacks follow-through.
• Chandelier Exit Heiken Ashi Variant (exit) — Provides a volatility-adjusted trailing stop that accounts for Heiken Ashi smoothing to stay in trends while exiting on momentum reversals.
• Price Line and Visible Range High-Low (risk) — Utilizes the visible chart extremes as hard structural invalidation points for stop-loss placement and risk-to-reward calculation.

Known failure conditions

• Market enters a 'crab' regime where price oscillates between visible highs and lows without trend expansion.
• High-frequency news events causing ROC spikes that are immediately faded, bypassing the GHOST sentiment filter.
• HS pattern symmetry breaks frequently due to gap-heavy market opens.

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