Harmonic Gravity Regime Trader

Family: hybrid · Regime: trending · Complexity: medium · Asset classes: Forex, Equity Indices, Gold · Timeframes: 15m, 1h

Thesis

Market trends are most tradable when price deviations from a moving average are consistent and 'smooth' (Low MSE). By identifying these high-quality trends using a Moving Harmonic Mean and entering on Ehlers Center of Gravity cyclic turning points, we can capture high-probability swings confirmed by volume, while using intraday session boundaries to provide structurally significant risk anchors.

Components

Mean Squared Error (MSE) (regime) — Acts as the regime filter; a low MSE indicates the price is closely following its mean, suggesting a 'stable' and tradable trend rather than erratic noise.
Moving Harmonic Mean (direction) — Provides the primary trend direction. Harmonic means are more sensitive to price dips in an uptrend, providing a tighter 'floor' than arithmetic means.
Ehlers Center of Gravity (CG) (entry) — Identifies the specific entry point within the trend by locating the balance point of price cycles with minimal lag.
Donchian Channels (DC) (exit) — Used for dynamic profit taking and exit, capturing price extensions outside the recent range.
Session Range (High/Low/Mid) (risk) — Defines the structural boundaries for risk management. The session low/high acts as the ultimate invalidation level for the day's bias.
Volume Moving Average (VOLMA) (confirmation) — Confirms that the entry move is backed by rising participation, filtering out low-liquidity 'drift'.
Average True Range (ATR) (volatility_filter) — Filters out periods of extreme volatility where stops are likely to be hunted and low volatility where the edge is eaten by spread.

Known failure conditions

MSE remains above the 70th percentile of its lookback for extended periods, indicating permanent market fragmentation.
Price repeatedly violates the Session Range Midpoint without reaching the Donchian boundaries.
Tick volume data becomes disconnected from price action (common in specific CFD brokers).

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