Hull-ICT Mitigation Momentum Breakout

Family: hybrid · Regime: trending · Complexity: medium · Asset classes: FX, Equities, Crypto · Timeframes: H1, H4, M15

Thesis

Market moves are most sustained when structural order-flow shifts (Mitigation Blocks) occur in alignment with high-speed momentum (HMA) and volume expansion. By filtering for volatility breakouts (Keltner) and institutional 'direction' (Scanner), we identify high-probability trend legs while avoiding the 'noise' of typical RSI/MACD crossovers. PSAR trailing stops allow for capturing tail-end trend extensions that fixed targets would miss.

Components

• Hull Moving Average (HMA) (regime) — Used as the primary regime filter to ensure trades are taken only in the direction of the immediate lag-minimized trend.
• Custom 006 Hybrid Table Scanner (direction) — Confirms direction via EMA cross and validates the move with relative volume expansion.
• ICT Mitigation Block Scanner (entry) — Provides the specific structural entry trigger by identifying price levels where failed swings (mitigation) indicate a liquidity shift.
• Parabolic SAR (Standard) (exit) — Provides an objective, price-following trailing exit to capture trend extensions while protecting profits.
• Average True Range (ATR) (risk) — Determines position sizing and initial stop-loss distance based on realized market volatility.
• Keltner Channels (volatility_filter) — Acts as a volatility expansion filter; price must be outside the channel to ensure the trade is taken during a momentum 'thrust'.

Known failure conditions

• Price remains within Keltner Channels for extended periods (low volatility regime) despite HMA slope.
• Zig-Zag legs in the ICT scanner frequently recalculate during low-volume sessions, leading to 'phantom' entries.
• PSAR exit is triggered immediately after entry due to ATR-calculated stop-loss being too tight relative to SAR start value.

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