Ichimoku REI-Wave HS Composite
Family: hybrid · Regime: trending · Complexity: high · Asset classes: FX, Equities, Crypto · Timeframes: H1, H4
Thesis
Head & Shoulders patterns are often false signals in isolation; however, when they occur as a completion of a correction within a primary Ichimoku trend, and are supported by positive REI price velocity and high WaveTrend context (POC/Volume), they represent a high-probability transition from accumulation/distribution back into the primary trend.
Components
- Range Expansion Index (REI) (regime) — Acts as the regime filter to ensure price velocity is directional and not noise-bound; only permits trades when the index is non-zero and aligned with trend direction.
- Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (direction) — Establishes the primary trend bias; price must be on the correct side of the Kumo (Cloud) and Tenkan/Kijun must be aligned.
- HS Indicator (Head & Shoulders) (entry) — Provides the specific market structure trigger, identifying exhaustion and breakout points via classical chart patterns.
- RSI Area (Histogram) (exit) — Used for exhaustion-based exits when the momentum reaches overbought/oversold extremes relative to the entry.
- ATR Fib (risk) — Calculates the volatility-adjusted stop loss based on session-anchored Fibonacci extensions of the ATR.
- WaveTrend v3 [WavesUnchained] (volatility_filter) — Serves as a multi-layered volatility and volume filter, ensuring the pattern breakout has institutional 'weight' (POC reclaim and MTF alignment).
Known failure conditions
- Success rate falls below 40% during sustained low-volatility periods where the REI stays near zero for extended durations.
- WaveTrend Context Score consistently fails to reach 3.0 during clear price movements, suggesting the volume profile logic is misaligned with the asset.
- Pattern failure rate exceeds 60% when price is inside the Ichimoku Kumo.
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