Jarque-Bera Moment-Cycle Hybrid

Family: hybrid · Regime: high_vol · Complexity: medium · Asset classes: Equities, Forex, Crypto · Timeframes: 1H, 4H, D1

Thesis

The hypothesis is that significant market trends are 'shocks' characterized by statistical non-normality (fat tails). By using the Jarque-Bera test to filter for these non-Gaussian regimes, we can avoid efficient-market noise. When non-normality is confirmed in the direction of the HTF trend (200 SMA) and local momentum (EMA), an entry via the zero-lag Center of Gravity oscillator captures the meat of the move, while MACD and SuperTrend provide diverse exit signals based on momentum and volatility respectively.

Components

• Jarque-Bera Test (JB) (regime) — Acts as a kurtosis-based regime filter; we only trade when the price distribution deviates from normality (JB > 5.991), suggesting a momentum shock or trend inception rather than noise.
• Exponential Moving Average (EMA) (direction) — Provides a medium-term trend bias to ensure the entry aligns with recent price momentum.
• Ehlers Center of Gravity (CG) (entry) — Identifies the precise turning point in the price cycle with minimal lag, acting as the primary execution trigger.
• Connect MACD (Azullian) (exit) — Uses momentum exhaustion (MACD crossing signal line) to trigger an exit before the trailing stop is hit.
• Extrem SuperTrend (risk) — Provides a volatility-adjusted trailing stop-loss to protect capital and lock in profits.
• 200-Day Trend Background (Smoothed Volume Gradient) (volatility_filter) — Ensures trades are only taken in the direction of the dominant high-timeframe trend with sufficient volume support.

Known failure conditions

• Extended periods of low Jarque-Bera values (< 5.991) indicating a 'normal' distribution/efficient market where this strategy has no edge.
• Price oscillating around the 14 EMA while the 200 SMA slope is flat, causing whipsaws.
• High-impact news events that create single-bar JB spikes followed by immediate reversals.

Explore the full interactive blueprint, parameter ranges and evidence on WOBR StrategyVerse, or generate this strategy as an MT4/MT5 Expert Advisor with QuantMogul AI Engine.