Jurik Adaptive Force Confluence

Family: trend_following · Regime: trending · Complexity: high · Asset classes: FX, Equities, Indices · Timeframes: H1, H4, D1

Thesis

Market trends are most tradable when price momentum (Average Force) and trend-following volatility envelopes (Jurik) are in alignment; entering on MACD/Stochastic confluence captures the 'meat' of the move while Fibonacci levels provide objective structural risk boundaries that are less prone to random stop-outs than fixed-pip stops.

Components

• Jurik Adaptive Envelope Bands (regime) — Provides a noise-filtered volatility-adjusted regime. Price relative to the JMA base determines the valid trend environment.
• Average Force (direction) — Filters out minor retracements by requiring the smoothed price-to-range ratio to be on the correct side of the zero-line.
• MACD (entry) — Acts as the tactical trigger when momentum aligns with the adaptive regime and directional bias.
• MACD & OSMA Cloud Hybrid (exit) — Captures the exhaustion phase of a trend by monitoring the rate of change in the MACD-Signal spread (OsMA) scaled to price.
• Auto Fibonacci (risk) — Dynamically identifies market structure swing points to set stop losses at the 61.8% or 100% retracement levels.
• Stochastic Oscillator (confirmation) — Ensures that entries occur when momentum is not overextended in the opposite direction (confirmation of the MACD move).

Known failure conditions

• Price frequently oscillates across the Jurik JMA Base in a tight range (whipsaw).
• Auto Fibonacci levels fail to update due to lack of significant swing high/low formation in low-volatility environments.
• The Average Force indicator stays pegged at extremes while price reverses sharply.

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