Jurik-Liquidity Breakout Hypothesis

Family: breakout · Regime: trending · Complexity: medium · Asset classes: FX, Equity Indices, Commodities · Timeframes: H1, H4

Thesis

Breakouts from 50-period highs/lows are statistically more significant when they originate from HTF institutional liquidity zones (SNAP) and are confirmed by high-quality, smoothed momentum (RSX), as these conditions filter out 'retail' traps and focus on institutional trend initiation.

Components

• SNAP HTF_LTF Indicator (regime) — Filters for trades occurring near institutional supply/demand zones or HTF breaker blocks to ensure the breakout has 'smart money' backing.
• TradeBreakOut (TBO) (direction) — Identifies the specific moment price breaks out of a medium-term range (50 periods).
• Relative Strength Quality Index (RSX) (entry) — Uses Jurik-smoothed momentum to trigger entry, ensuring the breakout is accompanied by high-quality, low-noise strength.
• Custom 004 Liquidity Map with Drawings (exit) — Identifies the nearest major liquidity pools (20-period extremes) to serve as logical profit targets.
• Daily High Low MTF (risk) — Provides objective structural levels for stop-loss placement based on previous day volatility.
• Average Force (confirmation) — Confirms that price is positioned favorably within its recent range and that the momentum has sufficient 'force' to sustain the move.

Known failure conditions

• Price oscillates within the DRT Gantt Box without a clear breakout signal for >48 hours.
• TBO signals a breakout but RSX remains below/above the midline, indicating a low-velocity trap.
• The daily range (Daily High Low) is significantly smaller than the 20-period ATR, suggesting a contraction phase where breakouts are likely to fail.

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