Log-Stabilized Triple EMA Harmonic Continuation

Family: trend_following · Regime: trending · Complexity: medium · Asset classes: FX, Equities, Crypto · Timeframes: H1, H4, D1

Thesis

Market trends exhibit self-similarity (harmonics) during consolidation phases. By identifying these patterns only when the underlying volatility (Log-variance) is stable and the triple-EMA trend is aligned, we can enter trades at structural 'floors' (Boxlines) with high convexity. The edge lies in the confluence of structural geometry and stabilized momentum.

Components

• Triple Exponential Moving Average (EMA) (regime) — Establishes the hierarchical trend regime. Trade only when the three EMAs are stacked in order, ensuring a mature but active trend.
• MA-Candlesticks (direction) — Provides a smoothed representation of immediate directionality, filtering out intra-candle noise that could invalidate pattern detections.
• Custom Pattern Detection (entry) — Identifies specific price-structure exhaustion points (D or F points) within the trend to time entries.
• Bollinger Bands (exit) — Used as dynamic exhaustion targets (outer bands) and trailing stops (middle band) to capture trend volatility.
• Boxline (Consolidation Zones) (risk) — Defines the structural 'floor' or 'ceiling' for the trade. If price violates the box that formed the pattern base, the trade is invalidated.
• Logarithmic Transformation (LOG) (volatility_filter) — Calculates the 20-period standard deviation of log returns to ensure the market is in a 'steady' volatility regime rather than a blow-off phase.

Known failure conditions

• Price repeatedly crosses the TEMA 21-period line, indicating a lost trend regime.
• The Boxline height exceeds the 20-period ATR by 3x, indicating the 'consolidation' is actually a high-volatility range.
• Pattern 'lookback' causes signals to fire more than 5 bars after the actual price pivot.

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