Logarithmic Structure Expansion Strategy

Family: trend_following · Regime: trending · Complexity: high · Asset classes: Equities, Forex, Crypto · Timeframes: H1, H4, D1

Thesis

The hypothesis is that high-momentum price expansions (Order Blocks) occurring within a confirmed structural trend (ZigZag HH/HL) represent institutional participation. By filtering these entries through a cubic-smoothed momentum index (TDFI) and scaling risk inversely to price instability (MSLE), the strategy captures the 'meat' of a move while avoiding exhausted trends where logarithmic error is high.

Components

• ZigZag+ v5 (regime) — Used to establish the primary market structure (HH/HL or LH/LL) to ensure trades are only taken in the direction of established price swings.
• Trend Direction and Force Index (TDFI) (direction) — Filters for high-intensity momentum. The cubic component ensures we only enter when the trend 'force' is accelerating beyond a noise threshold.
• Sonarlab - Order Blocks (entry) — Acts as the execution trigger. It identifies specific institutional footprints (supply/demand zones) where price is likely to react.
• ATR Heiken Ashi (exit) — Provides a smoothed volatility-based exit. The HA smoothing prevents premature exits during minor price fluctuations within a larger trend.
• Mean Squared Logarithmic Error (MSLE) (risk) — Measures the variance of price relative to its mean. High MSLE suggests 'stretched' or unstable price action, used here to scale down risk or widen stops.
• RSIOMA (RSI of Moving Average) (confirmation) — Provides secondary momentum confirmation. By applying RSI to an EMA, it filters out micro-noise that often plagues standard RSI entries.

Known failure conditions

• Prolonged sideways consolidation where ZigZag depth never confirms a new leg but TDFI oscillates around the dead zone.
• Extreme parabolic moves where MSLE explodes, causing the strategy to stop-out prematurely due to massive relative error spikes.

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