Logit-Validated MTF Breakout Momentum

Family: hybrid · Regime: trending · Complexity: high · Asset classes: Crypto (Specifically ATOMUSDT), Equities, FX · Timeframes: 15m, 1H

Thesis

Market momentum is most predictive when price breaks out of the previous day's range during peak liquidity sessions (London/NY). By filtering these breakouts through a triple-ADX trend visualizer and a logistic regression model trained on market structure features (FVGs/Liquidity), we can identify high-probability momentum bursts while using cycle-based detrending (DSP) to capture the meat of the move before periodic exhaustion.

Components

• Daily High Low MTF (regime) — Establishes the high-timeframe context by identifying if price is trading outside or testing the previous day's boundaries.
• Easy Trend Visualizer (ETV) (direction) — Ensures that momentum signals are only taken when three different ADX windows confirm a high-intensity trend (ADX > 30/35).
• MACD (entry) — Provides the specific trigger for entry based on the convergence/divergence of momentum within the established trend.
• Ehlers Detrended Synthetic Price (DSP) (exit) — Identifies cycle exhaustion by removing the trend component, signaling an exit before the mean reversion occurs.
• ATOM Coefficient Indicator (logit) (risk) — Acts as a final statistical probability gate and provides ATR-based stop-loss/take-profit parameters.
• Market Sessions (DarthBuddha) (volatility_filter) — Filters out low-liquidity periods where ADX signals are prone to false positives due to lack of volume.

Known failure conditions

• Price remains trapped within a narrow range (Previous Day High - Previous Day Low) for more than 3 consecutive days.
• Logit model probability consistently remains between 0.45 and 0.55, indicating a loss of predictive power.
• ADX periods 1, 2, and 3 diverge significantly, suggesting fragmented trend structure.

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