Macro-Filtered Asia Breakout System
Family: breakout · Regime: trending · Complexity: high · Asset classes: FX, Indices · Timeframes: M15, H1
Thesis
The 'Asia Breakout' edge is conditional upon global macro-stability. When the Macro Risk Dashboard indicates low cross-market stress, Asian session consolidation serves as a reliable launchpad for trending moves. In this environment, directional momentum (Average Force) and trend triggers (MACD) have a higher probability of following through. Conversely, when macro risk is high, breakouts are likely liquidity-traps driven by hedging rather than trend initiation.
Components
- Macro Risk Dashboard v8.2 (regime) — Acts as a global liquidity gatekeeper; trend-following momentum is only viable when cross-market stress is low.
- Average Force (direction) — Filters for daily momentum bias by measuring where the current price sits within its recent high-low range.
- MACD Demo Implementation (entry) — Provides the specific execution trigger when momentum aligns with the macro and session-based direction.
- RSI Area (Histogram) (exit) — Identifies momentum exhaustion points to exit before mean reversion occurs.
- Pivot Point S&R with GMT Correction (risk) — Provides objective, non-repainting levels for stop-loss placement and risk-adjusted position sizing.
- Forex Asia Range Box Lite (volatility_filter) — Ensures trades are only taken on breakouts of the overnight consolidation range, avoiding the 'chop' within the box.
Known failure conditions
- Macro Risk score stays above 70 for extended periods, suggesting a regime of persistent high volatility where momentum fails.
- Price remains trapped within the Asia Range Box for the duration of the London/NY sessions.
- Central Pivot Point (P) is located outside the Asia Range Box, indicating extreme overnight volatility that invalidates standard pivot math.
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