Macro-Fractal Wave Expansion System
Family: hybrid · Regime: trending · Complexity: high · Asset classes: FX, Equities, Commodities · Timeframes: H1, H4, D1
Thesis
Market trends are most exploitable when macro-economic conditions are stable (low z-score risk) and price structure aligns with Elliott Wave expansions. By using normalized momentum (Fisher) to confirm fractal breakouts, we capture high-velocity moves during 'Wave 3' scenarios while managing risk through non-dynamic point-based grids.
Components
- HiLo Activator (Pandini Version) (regime) — Establishes the broad trend bias using Gann-style trailing averages of highs and lows.
- Elliott Wave [LuxAlgo] (direction) — Identifies the specific phase of the market cycle (e.g., seeking the start of Wave 3/5 or end of C).
- Mn Fractal Store (entry) — Determines the specific breakout level (fractal peak/trough) for the entry trigger.
- MACD (exit) — Monitors momentum decay for exit, specifically looking for signal line crosses.
- Point-Based Price Grid (risk) — Provides the structural anchor for fixed-unit stop losses and position sizing.
- Fisher Transform (EarnForex) (confirmation) — Provides a Gaussian-normalized momentum signal to confirm price acceleration.
- Macro Risk Dashboard v8.2 (volatility_filter) — Filters out high-risk macro environments where technical patterns fail due to liquidity shocks.
Known failure conditions
- Macro Risk composite score stays consistently above 80 despite price trending.
- Repeated Elliott Wave labeling changes (repainting) leading to signal vanishing.
- Market volatility exceeds the Point-Based Grid spacing, resulting in instant stops.
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