Macro-Seasonal Darvas Breakout System

Family: breakout · Regime: trending · Complexity: high · Asset classes: Equities, Forex · Timeframes: H1, D1

Thesis

Institutional flow cycles (Seasonality) create high-probability windows for structural breakouts (Darvas). By requiring volume-weighted confirmation (WatchTower) and smoothing out price noise via Heikin-Ashi momentum (Stochastic), we filter false breakouts. The Macro Risk overlay serves as a circuit breaker against systemic volatility, based on the assumption that technical patterns fail when cross-asset stress is high.

Components

• Daily Seasonality (regime) — Acts as a time-based filter to avoid low-liquidity/low-probability session starts or 'dead zone' days (e.g., Monday morning churn).
• Darvas Boxes Modern/Classic (direction) — Identifies structural breakout points and current consolidation zones.
• KandleKings™ WatchTower v1.0 (entry) — Ensures entry occurs on high-volume conviction with price leading VWAP.
• MA Channel (Framework Version) (exit) — Provides a trend-persistence counter to exit when the core trend momentum exhausts.
• Macro Risk Dashboard v8.2 (risk) — Dynamic position sizing based on cross-market stress; prevents heavy exposure during macro-shocks.
• OTLIB Stochastic Oscillator (Heikin-Ashi based) (confirmation) — Smoothed momentum confirmation to filter out noise from raw candle spikes.
• ATR SL Finder (volatility_filter) — Provides the hard price level for the stop loss based on recent volatility.

Known failure conditions

• Macro Risk Dashboard remains pinned above 80% for extended periods (systemic regime shift).
• Darvas boxes fail to form (range-bound markets with no clear pivots).
• Repainting in the HA-Stochastic leads to retrospective signal disappearance.

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