MAPE-Adaptive Ichimoku Momentum

Family: trend_following · Regime: trending · Complexity: high · Asset classes: FX, Indices, Equities · Timeframes: H1, H4

Thesis

Market trends are sustainable when backed by volume accumulation (CMF) and momentum (HA-Stochastic), but the 'predictability' of the trend varies. By using MAPE to quantify how much price deviates from a moving average model, we can scale down risk when the market becomes erratic and scale up when it is 'behaving' predictably within the Ichimoku structure.

Components

• Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (regime) — Defines the trend context via the Kumo (Cloud) and momentum direction via the Tenkan/Kijun cross. Sets the structural bias.
• Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (direction)
• OTLIB Stochastic Oscillator (Heikin-Ashi based) (entry) — Uses smoothed HA data to identify momentum cycles within the larger trend; serves as the primary timing trigger.
• MultiKAMA (TyphooN) (exit) — Provides an adaptive exit target that tightens during high efficiency and widens during noise, protecting profits.
• Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) (risk) — Quantifies the deviation from the mean trend; used to scale risk based on the predictability of current price action.
• Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) (confirmation) — Confirms that price movement is supported by volume/liquidity accumulation rather than thin-market noise.
• Jurik Adaptive Envelope Bands (volatility_filter) — Ensures trade execution only occurs when volatility-adjusted expansion is present, avoiding low-liquidity churn.

Known failure conditions

• Price remains trapped within the Kumo for extended periods, causing whip-saw signals.
• MAPE spikes above historical 90th percentile, indicating total breakdown of predictive modeling.
• Stochastic repaint issues lead to entries that disappear on bar close.

Explore the full interactive blueprint, parameter ranges and evidence on WOBR StrategyVerse, or generate this strategy as an MT4/MT5 Expert Advisor with QuantMogul AI Engine.